The aviation sector is on a long and challenging journey toward achieving net zero by 2050, with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) playing a key role in reducing emissions. Under the Biden administration, SAF production received significant support, but with the return of Donald Trump to the presidency, the future of SAF has become uncertain. While policy freezes and changes have already disrupted the industry, there may still be opportunities for SAF to continue growing in unexpected ways.
The Rise of SAF and Its Role in Decarbonizing Aviation
Sustainable aviation fuel is derived from non-petroleum-based feedstocks such as municipal solid waste, fats, oils, and woody biomass. It has been recognized as one of the most effective ways to decarbonize aviation because it can reduce lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel. Unlike other alternative energy solutions, SAF can be used in existing aircraft without modifications, making it a practical solution for airlines looking to cut emissions.
Between 2021 and 2024, the SAF industry experienced unprecedented growth. Thanks to incentives such as the 45Z tax credit introduced under the Biden administration, SAF production soared from five million gallons in 2021 to 93 million gallons in 2024. These policies also helped reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 750,000 metric tons in 2024 alone.
The Shift in Policy Under Trump
The transition to a new administration has created turbulence in the SAF industry. On his first day back in office, Trump froze the Inflation Reduction Act, which had been instrumental in funding SAF production. Instead, his executive order, “Unleashing American Dominance,” focuses on expanding domestic energy production without clear support for sustainable alternatives.
The immediate impact of this policy shift was evident when CVR Energy Inc. announced a halt in SAF production due to uncertainty over tax credits. However, in a seemingly contradictory move, the Trump administration approved a loan for a SAF refinery in Montana, indicating that some level of support for SAF may still exist.
State-Level Incentives: A Lifeline for SAF
While federal policies remain uncertain, several states have stepped up with their own incentives. Washington, Illinois, and Minnesota have introduced policies to encourage SAF production, offering tax credits and subsidies to keep the industry afloat.
Fayaz Hussain, Editor of SAF Investor, highlights the importance of this dual approach: “SAF developers need both federal and state-level incentives to bridge the price gap between SAF and traditional jet fuel.” Without strong government support, the cost of SAF remains significantly higher than conventional jet fuel, making it difficult for airlines to adopt on a large scale.
Can the U.S. Still Reach Three Billion Gallons by 2030?
The Biden administration had set a target of producing three billion gallons of SAF by 2030. While the industry was on track to meet this goal, recent policy changes have cast doubt on its feasibility. The U.S. has an estimated SAF production pipeline that could yield between 2.6 billion and 4.9 billion gallons by 2030, but without stable incentives, these projections could change.
The situation is further complicated by the global SAF landscape. The European Union and the United Kingdom have adopted a more aggressive regulatory approach, implementing mandates that require a minimum percentage of SAF in aviation fuel. In contrast, the U.S. has relied on financial incentives rather than mandates, which now seem to be at risk. If the current uncertainty continues, the U.S. could fall behind in the global race for SAF leadership.
The Corn-Based Ethanol Debate
One area where the Trump administration could support SAF is through increased reliance on corn-based ethanol as a feedstock. Trump has historically advocated for ethanol production as part of his broader support for the agricultural sector, particularly in rural areas that form a strong base of his voter support.
However, there are challenges to scaling corn-based ethanol for SAF. Compared to other SAF production pathways, ethanol-to-jet fuel is more expensive and has higher carbon intensity. For it to become a viable alternative, significant improvements in carbon reduction technology would be required.
The Road Ahead for SAF
Despite the uncertainties at the federal level, the SAF industry has not come to a complete standstill. State-level initiatives, private investments, and global SAF demand are keeping momentum alive. But for SAF to truly take off in the U.S., stable policies and long-term incentives are needed.
The Trump administration has yet to outline a clear stance on SAF. If the U.S. chooses to scale back on incentives, it risks losing its competitive edge in the global SAF market. On the other hand, if Trump aligns SAF development with his broader economic and energy strategies—perhaps by emphasizing job creation in rural areas or expanding ethanol-based SAF—it could provide a new pathway for growth.
Conclusion
The future of SAF in America is at a crossroads. While the industry made significant progress under the previous administration, political shifts have introduced new challenges. The 45Z tax credit remains in limbo, state-level incentives are providing temporary relief, and the U.S. risks falling behind international competitors who are setting aggressive mandates for SAF adoption.
For now, the SAF industry is navigating a period of uncertainty. Whether the U.S. can meet its three-billion-gallon target by 2030 depends on how federal policies evolve in the coming years. If Trump’s administration finds a way to balance economic growth with sustainability, SAF may still have a future—though it may look very different from the trajectory it was on just a year ago.