A Measured Milestone, A Meaningful Start
The recent Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Association presented a statistic that is both humbling and hopeful: global production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel is expected to double in 2025, reaching two million tonnes. Though this figure still only accounts for 0.7 percent of total airline fuel consumption, it signals a shift from intention to tangible progress.
This doubling is more than numerical growth—it represents a directional change. The increase may seem modest against the magnitude of the aviation industry’s carbon footprint, yet it embodies momentum that can multiply if the right ecosystems are in place.
Economics of Transition: A Complex Equation
As SAF scales, it introduces a familiar dilemma in the sustainability dialogue—cost. Europe’s SAF mandates have spurred demand but also doubled prices, with airlines projected to spend USD 2.9 billion in 2025 just to meet regulatory requirements. That same investment could have potentially abated 3.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide under more cost-effective programs.
However, this challenge also presents an opportunity to recalibrate policy frameworks to ensure they drive transformation rather than inflate transition costs. SAF’s cost competitiveness cannot rest solely on mandates; it requires an ecosystem that promotes innovation, scale, and market parity.
Building Bridges, Not Barriers
The call for equitable access and infrastructure by IATA underscores a broader principle: sustainable aviation should not be a luxury of the few but an imperative for all. Efforts like the SAF Matchmaker platform aim to bridge gaps between suppliers and airlines, making SAF procurement more accessible and transparent.
Equally pivotal is the creation of a global SAF registry, managed by the Civil Aviation Decarbonization Organization. By embedding traceability into the SAF ecosystem, such tools enhance credibility and align the fuel with compliance schemes like CORSIA.
Emerging Voices, Emerging Markets
India’s aviation trajectory adds an important layer to this narrative. As one of the world’s most rapidly growing aviation markets and the third-largest oil consumer, its commitment to a 2 percent SAF blend by 2028 sets the stage for significant regional influence. Yet, with no current commercial SAF production, the journey has just begun.
India’s move is not just a policy announcement—it is a signal of intention from the Global South, which must be acknowledged and supported in the global energy transition. Emerging economies will play a crucial role in determining whether SAF remains a boutique solution or becomes a universal standard.
Towards a Shared Altitude
The story of SAF in 2025 is not one of disappointment in its current scale but recognition of its directional integrity. Sustainable aviation is not defined by how fast we decarbonize but by how well we embed equity, innovation, and feasibility into every stage of the journey.
Governments must now align ambition with practical support—reallocating fossil fuel subsidies, strengthening access to bio-feedstocks, and refining carbon credit markets. The aviation sector, meanwhile, must lean into transparency, traceability, and partnerships.
Conclusion: A Quiet Revolution, Not a Headline
The SAF outlook presented at the AGM reminds us that sustainability is not always a story of sweeping revolutions. Sometimes, it is about small, deliberate shifts—like doubling production—that lay the groundwork for exponential change.
Real progress in aviation decarbonization will depend on how these first steps are amplified. By focusing not just on outputs, but on ecosystem building, inclusive policy, and accessible technology, the future of flight can indeed be sustainable.