Output Set to Double
New figures from the International Air Transport Association indicate that global sustainable aviation fuel production could reach 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, almost twice the 2024 volume. A further rise to 2.4 million tonnes is projected for 2026. Although these numbers represent less than one per cent of total jet consumption, the accelerated growth confirms that industrial scale up is firmly underway.
Why Early Scale Matters
Every additional litre of SAF entering pipelines delivers an immediate cut in net greenhouse gas emissions because the fuel is derived from waste oils, agricultural residues and other renewable feedstocks. Even modest uptake lets airlines practice blending logistics, shortening the path to scale.
Building Confidence for Investors
Incremental but predictable growth signals to capital markets that demand is real and long term. Project finance specialists view consistent offtake agreements as a stronger credit indicator than isolated policy mandates. As a result, lenders have begun packaging sustainability linked loans
specifically for first generation SAF refineries, lowering borrowing costs and accelerating construction schedules.
Non-Obvious Insight: Supply Hubs as Innovation Campuses
Airports that receive early SAF deliveries tend to attract adjacent research activity. Engineers studying storage behaviour, emissions sampling and new feedstocks prefer working beside live infrastructure rather than laboratory simulations. This clustering effect transforms supply hubs into living campuses where universities, startups and airlines co develop optimisation tools that shorten learning curves for the entire industry.
Policy Opportunities
Governments can amplify momentum by coupling clear long term targets with investment incentives such as loan guarantees or feedstock tax credits. Support mechanisms that reward verified emission reductions, rather than imposing complex volume mandates, give producers the flexibility to innovate while still driving measurable progress.
Conclusion
With production set to double and innovation ecosystems forming around early hubs, sustainable aviation fuel is emerging as a practical route toward lower carbon flights, offering airlines, investors and communities fresh opportunities to participate in aviation decarbonisation.