A Price Tag with Purpose
This year, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) released the 2024 reference prices for aviation fuels under the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation. More than a routine update, this pricing reveals a deeper narrative: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is no longer a future ambition—it is the present directive. As the EU’s SAF blending mandate kicks off with a 2 percent requirement, these reference prices are not just numbers. They are indicators of the complex interplay between policy, production, and market maturity.
More Than Market Trends
The reference prices extend beyond conventional fuels. While jet fuel and aviation biofuels are pegged to market rates, the new-generation fuels—synthetic, hydrogen-based, and recycled carbon—are benchmarked against estimated production costs. These include feedstock sourcing, energy input, and technological application. The price signals suggest progress in scale, yet underline the continued financial gap compared to fossil-based alternatives.
Notably, average prices for conventional fuels and biofuels have dropped. Conventional aviation fuel is down by 10 percent from last year, and aviation biofuels by a more substantial 25 percent. However, for newer SAF variants, costs are up across the board—recycled carbon fuels, advanced biofuels, synthetic fuels, and renewable hydrogen all saw increased estimated production costs for 2024.
Signals of Systemic Change
EASA’s pricing guide is more than economic insight—it forms a regulatory cornerstone. These estimates will shape penalties for non-compliance and influence subsidy allocation under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS). As blending mandates tighten over the decades, price transparency becomes critical to fostering investment and supply chain confidence.
The 2024 update serves as a precursor to EASA’s full technical report due in September. That document will offer a comprehensive view of compliance among fuel suppliers, airports, and airlines—and provide a detailed account of SAF development across EU member states.
Navigating the SAF Transition
What makes the current moment especially noteworthy is the differentiated pricing for synthetic aviation fuels based on carbon sourcing. Fuel produced from atmospheric CO2 carries the highest cost—€8,470 per tonne—over eleven times the price of conventional fuel. Meanwhile, synthetic fuels sourced from industrial or biogenic CO2 remain marginally less expensive. These distinctions will matter increasingly as the sub-mandate for synthetic SAFs takes effect in 2030, starting at 1.2 percent and rising to 35 percent by 2050.
For renewable hydrogen, the picture is mixed. While its aviation-specific production cost rose to €7,520 per tonne, low-carbon hydrogen saw a marginal cost decrease. Such data points hint at potential efficiency gains or improved technological integration in select value chains.
Beyond Compliance: Strategy and Momentum
The progression of the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation and its annual pricing reviews represents a structural shift in how Europe approaches aviation decarbonisation. With rising cost transparency, the groundwork is being laid for smarter procurement, long-term offtake agreements, and incentive structuring.
For operators, this means more than meeting compliance—it means planning investments and partnerships that match the pace of regulation. It also invites questions around procurement strategies: How can airlines hedge against rising SAF production costs? How can airports support supply chain readiness?
Conclusion
The 2024 EASA reference prices reflect both opportunity and challenge. They demonstrate that while conventional and biofuels are becoming slightly more affordable, new fuels remain on a steep pricing curve. But that curve is not a dead end—it is a blueprint.
Policy is working to accelerate the economics of SAF. The groundwork being laid today, in price-setting and compliance mechanisms, is a crucial enabler for reaching 70 percent SAF use by 2050. As EASA’s full report nears, stakeholders across the value chain will need to remain agile, informed, and ready to translate compliance into competitive advantage.