Rethinking the Narrative Around Sustainable Aviation Fuel
In the ongoing pursuit of decarbonization, the aviation industry has come under increasing scrutiny for its environmental footprint. While much of the attention has focused on airlines and emerging technologies, a crucial yet often underappreciated ally in this transition has been Europe’s fuel manufacturing sector. Contrary to recent public discourse, this sector is not lagging — it is leading.
Behind the scenes, refiners across Europe are investing billions, innovating boldly, and meeting climate mandates ahead of schedule. The story unfolding in the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) space is one of transformation, not stagnation. It is time to shine a light on this progress and refocus the conversation toward collaborative solutions.
Delivering Ahead of Schedule: A Quiet Revolution in SAF
Europe’s refiners have not only met but exceeded expectations set by the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative. SAF production capacity is already ahead of the 2025 mandate of 2 percent, translating to over 1 million tonnes available — years in advance.
By 2030, the mandate will increase to 6 percent or approximately 2.7 million tonnes. Industry projections show that this target is within reach, backed by firm capacity additions and rising investments. Regional authorities and market data indicate that SAF supply will comfortably exceed 3.2 million tonnes by the end of the decade, with surplus capacity likely available until at least 2035.
Such figures are more than just milestones — they are proof points that the transition is real, measurable and rapidly accelerating.
Innovation and Investment Amid Uncertainty
Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of this transformation is the context in which it is occurring. Regulatory instability, unclear long-term incentives and fragmented policies pose significant hurdles. Yet despite these challenges, the fuel manufacturing industry has made daring decisions — pivoting toward SAF production even when the business case was ambiguous.
Today, seven European biorefineries (with more transitioning) deliver 100 percent renewable fuels across the transport ecosystem, contributing nearly 4 million tonnes annually. Additional facilities using co-processing techniques are scaling up, demonstrating a resilient, multifaceted approach to production.
These choices underscore an important insight: where the policy framework lags, industrial vision is stepping in to lead.
Market Proof: Performance Without Compromise
The performance of SAF as a viable alternative to fossil-based jet fuel is increasingly undeniable. Production volumes have surged tenfold in just two years — from 100,000 tonnes in 2022 to 1 million tonnes in 2024. Simultaneously, renewable fuel prices have plummeted, narrowing the cost gap with conventional jet fuels from a 4:1 ratio to below 2:1.
These shifts carry broader implications. Not only does SAF reduce lifecycle emissions, but its cost trajectory proves it is no longer a boutique solution for niche routes. It is scalable, competitive and ready to power mainstream aviation — provided the policy ecosystem enables it.
Clarifying the Record: Misconceptions Must Be Corrected
A recent wave of criticism, triggered by an incomplete interpretation of a consultancy report, has mischaracterized the state of SAF supply. Contrary to such claims, updated data reveal that global bio-SAF capacity is set to reach 9–12 million tonnes by 2030. This comfortably covers Europe’s ReFuelEU requirements and demonstrates the feasibility of scaling SAF without relying on distant technologies or speculative breakthroughs.
More importantly, these developments reaffirm that Europe’s refiners are not obstacles — they are essential actors delivering on climate goals. Misrepresentation only serves to derail momentum at a time when alignment is most critical.
Policy as a Catalyst: What Needs to Happen Next
Despite impressive progress, key barriers remain. The affordability and scalability of SAF hinge on decisive, smart policy moves. Europe’s fuel sector is calling for practical changes — not privileges — to ensure the green transition continues at pace:
- Predictable growth through pre-2030 national incentives and clear post-2030 mandates.
- Feedstock flexibility that includes intermediate and degraded land crops, unlocking new sustainable sources.
- Recognition of innovation by formally acknowledging contributions such as renewable hydrogen in final fuels.
- Harmonized legislation aligning emissions and energy directives, enabling seamless industry compliance and investment.
These are not radical asks — they are logical steps to unlock the full potential of sustainable fuel solutions across aviation and beyond.
The Call for Cooperation Over Conflict
The aviation ecosystem is inherently interdependent. Airlines, fuel manufacturers, regulators and feedstock suppliers must work in tandem. Pointing fingers achieves little; forming partnerships achieves much more.
The fuel sector’s willingness to invest in SAF — even without optimal conditions — is proof of its commitment. What is needed now is mutual recognition and a shared vision for climate neutrality. The progress so far is too valuable to be jeopardized by fractured policy or public misunderstanding.
Conclusion: A Future Worth Fueling
Europe’s refiners have already demonstrated what is possible when ambition meets action. SAF is no longer an emerging concept — it is a real, deliverable solution that is gaining traction and proving its worth.
As 2030 approaches, the time for blaming or second-guessing is over. The time for collaboration, clarity and courage is now. Those shaping aviation’s future must recognize that sustainable progress will be driven not by isolated efforts, but by integrated thinking and joint action.
The path to climate-neutral skies is open. The fuel sector is already on it — and ready to accelerate.