Study highlights
An Energy Research Company publication within the Ten Year Energy Plan projects a decisive jump for sustainable aviation fuel in Brazil starting in 2027. Consumption could rise to zero point zero three million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2035, meeting roughly twelve percent of energy demand for passenger flights. The forecast reflects strong climate commitments under Corsia and the federal ProBioQAV programme.
Drivers behind the expansion
Policy alignment
From 2027 Brazilian carriers will begin mandatory greenhouse gas reductions for domestic operations. Clear timelines give refiners and investors stable signals to scale production.
Emerging producers
Petrobras and Acelen are already testing pathways that convert regional feedstocks into certified fuel blends. Their early work lays a foundation for future commercial plants and promotes domestic technological expertise.
Market flexibility
The energy plan anticipates that diesel B remains main transport fuel through 2035, yet it recognises diverse alternatives. Ethanol use in light vehicles will grow five point three percent annually, electrified cars will slowly climb to six percent of the fleet, and maritime operators will trial ammonia, hydrogen, and liquefied natural gas.
Insight you might miss
Because SAF volumes enter the mix as a share of overall aviation energy rather than as absolute litres, airlines can gradually adopt the fuel without radical fleet change. This proportional strategy means refineries can expand in modular phases, matching delivery schedules with airline purchasing and lowering financing risk.
Wider transport context
Brazilian freight will continue to rely on trucks, but planned rail expansions of about twenty percent and upgrades to waterways will diversify logistics options. These parallel investments support nationwide mobility and help smooth supply of biofuel feedstocks to refinery sites.
Conclusion
Coordinated policy, industrial readiness, and strategic infrastructure planning place Brazil on a credible trajectory toward cleaner flight. The forthcoming SAF market represents an opportunity for investors, farmers, and logistics providers to collaborate on a resilient low carbon aviation ecosystem.