The Challenge of Mandates Without Matching Supply
The European Union has set ambitious targets to decarbonize its aviation sector through the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, which mandates that all airlines operating in the region blend a minimum of six percent sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) into their fuel mix by 2030. This is an encouraging signal to the market — it reflects a strong policy-level commitment to cleaner skies.
Yet, as highlighted by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on July 16, the journey from regulation to meaningful environmental benefit requires more than mandates. It requires alignment between ambition and availability. SAF production is currently estimated to meet just 0.7 percent of projected global demand by 2025. While the intent is commendable, the challenge lies in building a mature and resilient supply ecosystem.
Rethinking the Logistics of Sustainability
At the heart of IATA’s concerns is the issue of geography. Transporting SAF from one part of the world to meet regulatory requirements in another can paradoxically increase the total emissions associated with that fuel. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director-General, noted that moving SAF across long distances — for example, from Asia to Europe — can erode its carbon-saving potential through transportation-related emissions.
This opens up a critical insight: sustainability in aviation is not just about the fuel itself but also about how and where it is sourced, refined, and used. A truly green fuel strategy should minimize carbon impact across its entire lifecycle, not just at the tailpipe.
Costs and Competitive Balance
Another concern raised is the price distortion SAF mandates may introduce. With SAF supplies limited and obligations growing, fuel producers may raise prices across the board, affecting even traditional jet fuel. This can strain airline margins, particularly for operators already navigating high post-pandemic costs.
The situation underscores the importance of avoiding monopolistic dynamics within emerging green fuel markets. A competitive, well-distributed supply landscape will not only ease financial burdens on airlines but also help accelerate widespread adoption through natural market mechanisms, rather than top-down compulsion.
Bright Spots in Asia’s SAF Landscape
While Europe grapples with aligning demand and supply, the Asia-Pacific region is quietly building capacity. At least five SAF projects in Asia (excluding China) are scheduled to begin production by 2025. Countries like Singapore are positioning themselves as future-forward exporters of SAF, offering cleaner fuel alternatives that meet international standards.
This is a positive signal for the global market. It shows that when regional ecosystems are empowered, they can deliver fuel solutions that are scalable, exportable, and increasingly affordable. With the right investment and policy support, regional clusters can become global contributors to decarbonization efforts.
Feedstock Matters: Nuance Over Simplicity
A particularly sensitive and often polarizing topic in the SAF discourse is the choice of feedstock. Palm oil is frequently used, yet its sustainability credentials remain under scrutiny. Walsh offered a balanced view — not all palm oil is created equal. Some sources adhere to stringent sustainability guidelines, while others do not.
The key takeaway here is the need for nuanced, evidence-based assessments of feedstock types. Instead of blanket acceptances or rejections, the industry should develop robust evaluation mechanisms that recognize the sustainability spectrum within each feedstock category. This approach promotes transparency, fairness, and innovation in feedstock sourcing.
A More Adaptive Pathway to Cleaner Aviation
What the SAF mandate discussion ultimately reveals is the importance of adaptive policy frameworks. Rigid mandates that do not evolve with supply conditions may risk unintended consequences. Instead, an agile, collaborative approach — involving industry voices, regional governments, and supply chain actors — is more likely to deliver long-term impact.
Such cooperation could include smarter incentives, innovation grants, co-investment in regional SAF infrastructure, and clearer guidelines around sustainability assessment. These steps will not only make the fuel more accessible but also empower airlines to participate actively in shaping a lower-carbon future.
Conclusion: Moving Toward Shared Solutions for a Cleaner Tomorrow
Europe’s sustainable fuel goals are a necessary and welcome development in the global fight against climate change. But they must be matched with smart execution strategies that reflect the complexities of supply chains, regional capacity, and market dynamics.
The SAF discussion is not about retreating from ambition — it is about making ambition deliverable. By promoting regional production, supporting emerging exporters, and applying nuanced sustainability metrics, the aviation sector can turn policy vision into measurable progress.
The path to cleaner skies is not linear. It will require careful calibration, honest dialogue, and the willingness to evolve. But with global cooperation and smarter frameworks, the promise of sustainable aviation can become a practical and inclusive reality.
Be part of the global conversation on decarbonising flight.
Aviation Carbon 2025 registration is open – reserve your spot now.