Doubling Output Yet Facing the Reality
In 2025, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production is expected to double, reaching 2 million tonnes. This growth, as forecasted by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), represents a measurable shift in an industry historically dependent on fossil fuels. Yet, even this anticipated figure accounts for only 0.7 percent of global aviation fuel demand—a sobering reminder of the scale still required.
But framing this development purely through the lens of percentages risks overlooking a more subtle truth: momentum, once built, rarely reverses. SAF may still be expensive and under-supplied, but its presence is no longer theoretical. It is operational, measurable, and now, scaling.
A Supply Chain Awakening
What matters more than quantity alone is what this uptick signals to the aviation supply chain. Investment begets efficiency. The emergence of production volumes that stretch into the millions—not mere pilot batches—means that infrastructure, logistics, and certification protocols are becoming standardised. This is not merely growth; it is systematisation.
The key takeaway for airlines, fuel producers, and regulators is not just that SAF is growing, but that it is becoming repeatable. In sustainability, replicability is often a more telling metric than any year-on-year growth percentage.
The Compliance Price Tag: A Necessary Pressure?
Critics have pointed to the rising cost pressures from European mandates as a significant hurdle. Airlines may spend $1.2 billion to meet SAF mandates in the EU and UK, with an additional $1.7 billion in compliance-related fees. While these figures are significant, they reflect something else: an economic recognition of SAF’s environmental value.
These financial burdens are not inefficiencies; they are transitional costs. They represent the early expense of building a fuel economy around renewables, not oil. In policy terms, this is the cost of ambition.
Moreover, the rising cost of SAF relative to conventional jet fuel—now up to five times more—sends a strong price signal to producers. Demand, when backed by legal frameworks, drives innovation and cost reductions. This dynamic has held true for renewable electricity and electric mobility; SAF is next.
Strategic Shifts in Market Development
IATA’s response to rising costs is not obstructionist. Instead, it advocates for structural innovation. Tools like the SAF Registry developed by the Civil Aviation Decarbonization Organization (CADO) and SAF Matchmaker platforms are examples of how the industry is trying to build not just supply but trust and transparency.
These platforms do more than connect buyers and sellers. They standardize documentation, validate sustainability claims, and prepare the industry for eventual global accounting under mechanisms like CORSIA or EU ETS. This is how a market matures—not with splashy investments but with the quiet, vital work of building infrastructure.
Rethinking Subsidies: A Call for Balanced Incentives
One of the most pressing calls from IATA is for a rebalancing of subsidies. Global fossil fuel subsidies exceed $1 trillion. Redirecting even a fraction of this amount toward SAF and other renewables could significantly alter cost structures.
This appeal is not merely fiscal. It reframes the conversation around energy transition as one of opportunity rather than sacrifice. Funding SAF is not about giving aviation a “green pass.” It is about aligning energy subsidies with 21st-century environmental imperatives.
Integrated Energy Thinking for a Global Future
What’s emerging now is a new narrative: SAF is not simply a boutique solution for decarbonizing flight. It is a cornerstone of an integrated, cross-sectoral renewable energy future. As energy systems decentralise and diversify, SAF becomes a linchpin in aligning aviation with broader energy and climate goals.
The call for more integrated energy policies—those that place SAF alongside solar, wind, and green hydrogen—is both timely and necessary. Without such coordination, SAF risks being treated as a niche fuel instead of what it could be: a catalytic platform for industrial decarbonization.
Guyana’s Carbon Credit Entry: A Glimpse of What’s Possible
The news that Guyana is the only country to make carbon credits available for aviation use underlines how underdeveloped the voluntary credit market still is for this sector. Yet, it also shows a path forward.
When countries embed aviation within their broader emissions frameworks, they create opportunities for credible offsetting and co-benefits such as conservation and rural development. These dual benefits elevate aviation from a carbon-intensive sector to one that could potentially drive environmental investment.
A Coordinated Path Forward
This is not a moment to downplay the challenges of SAF. But neither is it the time to dwell solely on shortcomings. Instead, the industry’s slow but steady pivot to SAF should be seen as a structural realignment in progress. It is messy, expensive, and incomplete—but it is happening.
The more useful insight is this: every tonne of SAF produced embeds new knowledge into the system. It educates producers, informs regulators, and sharpens procurement strategies. The 2 million tonnes projected for 2025 are not just fuel—they are feedback loops, learning curves, and proof-of-concept at scale.
Conclusion: SAF as a Signal, Not a Solution
SAF should not be misunderstood as a complete solution to aviation’s climate problem. But it is a powerful signal that change is taking root. The fact that cost concerns and scalability debates are dominating headlines means SAF is no longer theoretical. It is contested, and therefore real.
The next chapter will depend less on production tonnage alone and more on collaboration, credibility, and commitment. And that is where the real opportunity lies.